Voting has been done for the assembly elections in Jharkhand. Now on November 23, we will know whether JMM is returning to power? Or is BJP forming the government? Before the pictures of the results became clear, Global News Daily reporters reached all 81 assembly seats of Jharkhand and recorded the results.
,
In Jharkhand, no single party or alliance seems to be getting the required 41 seats for majority. BJP alliance (NDA) can get the maximum seats. JMM led INDIA block may remain at second position. Congress seems to be suffering the most loss, which can show the INDIA block the way out of power.
This time, local parties like JLKM of Jharkhand and independent candidates can also play an important role in forming the government. Independent candidate Devendra Singh alias Bittu Singh from Panki seat and Independent candidate Shalini Gupta from Koderma seat are in strong position.
NDA close to power in Jharkhand Although no alliance seems to be getting majority in Jharkhand, the NDA under the leadership of BJP seems close to forming the government. NDA is strong on 37-40 seats. If this alliance wins even 40 seats, then one seat will be required for majority. In such a situation, NDA can take help of any independent MLA or small parties.
If we look at the seat sharing formula of NDA in Jharkhand Assembly elections, BJP has contested 68 seats, AJSU 10, JDU 2 and LJP(R) has contested one seat. BJP had got 25 seats in the 2019 elections, this time the party can win 29-32 seats. That means the party seems to be gaining 4-7 seats.
AJSU had got 2 seats in the last elections. This time it may get 3-5 seats. JDU and LJP (R) did not get a single seat in the last elections. This time they are likely to get 2 and 1 seat.
Congress is the weak link for INDIA block. JMM is contesting maximum 43 seats in INDIA block. After this, Congress is contesting on 30 seats and RJD on 6 seats. CPI (ML) has fielded candidates on 4 seats. Out of these, there is a friendly fight between the parties included in the INDIA block on 3 seats Dhanwar, Vishrampur and Chhatarpur.
Congress had won 16 seats in the 2019 elections, this time the party may be reduced to 6-8 seats. JMM also seems to be incurring losses. JMM had 30 seats in the last elections. This time the party is likely to win 25-29 seats. The Left may gain one seat. The party can win 2 seats this time. At the same time, RJD may get one seat like last time.
Senior journalist Shambhu Nath Choudhary says, 'Congress was not seen contesting in the entire assembly elections. The state leadership of the party disintegrated in the elections. The visits of national leaders were also not made with full preparation. He did not talk on the issues of Jharkhand. In Rahul Gandhi's speeches, only the old issues of saving the Constitution and Lok Sabha elections were raised.
'INDIA block was already considering Hemant Soren as the leader. In the elections, JMM got another star campaigner in the form of Kalpana Soren. The campaign campaign of INDIA Block was carried out on the strength of these two leaders. Therefore, it can be said that whatever benefit the INDIA block will get in this election, 80% credit will go to the Hemant-Kalpana duo.
BJP can open account in Kolhan The area where BJP suffered the biggest setback in 2019 was Kolhan. This time the party has laid a strong siege here. First of all, the party included former CM Champai Soren, known as Kolhan Tiger, from JMM to BJP. After this, he added Geeta Koda, a senior Congress leader and wife of former CM Madhu Koda.
In the last elections, BJP suffered the biggest loss in this area due to Saryu Rai, Champai Soren and Geeta Koda. Saryu Rai had defeated the then CM Raghuvar Das. This time all these faces are with BJP.
BJP has fielded two big leaders here, the family members of former Jharkhand CM Raghuvar Das and Arjun Munda. With the help of these equations, BJP seems to be making a comeback in Kolhan. If NDA ally JDU is also included, then BJP seems to be successful in getting 4-6 seats in Kolhan.
Independent candidates and small parties are important There is a tough contest between NDA and INDIA block in Jharkhand. Despite this, Independents and Jharkhand Democratic Revolutionary Front i.e. JLKM are looking strong on 2-3 seats. JLKM Chief Jairam Mahato can prove to be the 'X-factor' in the elections. Independent candidates are giving tough competition on Panki and Koderma seats.
Independent candidate from Panki seat, Devendra Singh alias Bittu Singh was earlier in Congress. He was in contact with BJP when he got the ticket, but after not getting the ticket from there too, he decided to contest the election as an independent. Meanwhile, independent candidate Shalini Gupta is contesting from Koderma seat.
From here, BJP has given ticket to Neera Yadav and RJD has given ticket to Subhash Yadav. In such a situation, Shalini Gupta seems to be getting the benefit of anti-Yadav votes. She has also been the Koderma District Council President in 2014 and has been continuously active in the field since the 2019 elections.
Expert said – Independents can become kingmakers Ranchi's senior journalist Shambhunath Chaudhary says, 'If we calculate seat by seat, then NDA can win 38 to 39 seats. Whereas, INDIA block seems to be winning 40-41 seats. BJP can win 30 to 32 seats in NDA. AJSU seems to be getting 5 seats, JDU and LJP are getting 1 seat each.
'JMM can get maximum 31 seats in INDIA block. Congress may go below its previous performance. I will give 7 seats to Congress, 2 seats to RJD and one seat to CPI-ML.
Shambhunath further says, 'BJP's campaign was the strongest in the elections. Last time BJP was 0 in Kolhan. This time it may get 5 seats. On the other hand, in Santhal Pargana also, BJP seems to be getting 1-2 more seats as compared to the last elections. In 2019, BJP had won 4 seats in Santhal.
Difficult for NDA-INDIA block to reach majority mark Political expert Surendra Soren, who understands the politics of Jharkhand, says, 'There is a high possibility that no alliance will get the majority. After the elections, Jharkhand may repeat its old history once again. NDA seems to be winning 37 to 40 seats and INDIA is seen winning 36 to 38 seats.
Barring the meetings of JMM team and its two star campaigners Kalpana Soren and Hemant Soren, neither any election meetings nor any rallies were seen taking place. His workers were focusing on door-to-door campaigning.
'On the other hand, the number of BJP meetings was slightly more in comparison. Although it is difficult to say at the moment whether the number of meetings will increase the number of MLAs. Both BJP and JMM seem to be getting 25-25 seats.
Congress Where does she stand in this election? In response to this, Surendra Soren says, 'At the ground level, not much confidence was visible in the body language of Congress workers and leaders. It would be surprising if Congress even reaches double digits in this election. With the help of JMM's crutches, their leaders will reach the assembly.
If no party or alliance gets majority then how will the government be formed? On this question, Surendra says, 'To reach the majority figure, both the parties will have to depend on allies. If Congress and Left perform better in Santhal, then INDIA block government will be formed in the state once again.
'At the same time, LJP(R), JDU and AJSU are the three big parties in the NDA camp. If they are successful in getting their seats, then BJP will definitely form the alliance government.
For the first time, more BJP flags than JMM were seen in Santhal. According to Surendra, this is the first time in this election that a large number of BJP flags were installed on houses in Santhal Pargana. There was inclination towards BJP among Santhal youth and women. This is a big change. This time BJP can make some changes in Santhal. At the same time, BJP can win 2-3 seats in Kolhan also. Overall BJP will get 25-30 seats this time.
Jairam Mahato will influence the votes of JMM and AJSU. In seats where there are Mahato voters, both the alliances may have to suffer losses.
Effect of 'If you divide you will be divided' and 'If you stay united then you will be safe' Political analyst Anand Kumar has visited 70 assembly seats in Jharkhand. He does not agree with the figures of experts Shambhunath Chaudhary and Surendra Soren. Anand believes that this time NDA seems to be in a position to form government in Jharkhand with 42 seats. There are no signs of a hung assembly.
Anand says, 'BJP has emerged as the largest party in the elections. BJP alone seems to be winning 34 seats. Talking about its allies, JDU is looking strong on 2 seats, AJSU on 5 and LJP(R) on one seat.
'On the other hand, INDIA block may be reduced to 34-38 seats. Both JMM and Congress seem to be suffering losses in the elections. Congress may reduce from 16 to 8 seats and JMM may reduce from 30 to 26-28 seats. Whereas the number of CPI(ML) MLAs may increase from 1 to 2.
'The way Muslims are marrying tribals is a problem of the state. This issue was made bigger by UP CM Yogi Adityanath's slogan 'If you divide, you will be cut' and PM Modi's statement 'If we remain united, we will be safe'.
Hemant-Kalpana cast heavy burden on BJP's top leadership Where do you see JMM in this election? In response to this, Anand says, 'There could be an undercurrent of the Maiyan scheme. Mainiya Yojana can also play a role in increasing women voters. Now, how much color it will bring to the ground is yet to be assessed.
'The thing that JMM has earned in this election is its powerful faces. The pair of Hemant Soren and Kalpana Soren contested the top leadership of BJP alone. Kalpana's popularity can be gauged from the fact that after PM Narendra Modi, if the crowd was gathering in anyone's meeting, then it was Kalpana Soren's meeting.
'Congress did not contest the Jharkhand Assembly elections on its own, it depended on Kalpana and Hemant. Rahul Gandhi made only two visits here. There was no meeting of Priyanka. If any Congress candidate wins, he will win only on the basis of his popularity.
In Maharashtra, it is difficult for both Mahayuti or Mahavikas Aghadi to get the required 145 seats for majority. Mahayuti may get 12-140 seats and Mahavikas Aghadi may get 135-150 seats. BJP can get maximum 80-90 seats. Read the full news..
Graphics Source: NavJivanIndia | VaskarAssets | NavBharatTimes
