'It is clear that no one is expected to get majority in Maharashtra. This time small parties and independent candidates can win 25 seats, which means they will form the government.
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If the prediction of political expert Sandeep Sonwalkar is correct, then politics of sabotage may start once again in Maharashtra. Voting is to be held on all 288 seats in the state on November 20. Before this, Dainik Global News Daily spoke to common people, experts and political parties to understand the direction of the wind.
Understand the trends and political equations of Maharashtra in 5 points…
1. BJP, which is contesting on 148 seats, looks strong on 80 to 90 seats. In 2019 it had got 105 seats. Allies Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) may win 30-35 seats and NCP (Ajit faction) may win 15-20 seats. In this context, Mahayuti can get 125 to 145 seats. 145 seats are needed for majority.
2. Congress seems to be the strongest in Mahavikas Aghadi. It may get 52-65 seats. Sharad Pawar's party NCP (SP) is strong on 50-55 seats. Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) is in the weakest position. It may get 30-35 seats. Mahavikas Aghadi is likely to get 132 to 155 seats.
3. In Maharashtra, small parties and independent candidates can win 20-25 seats. If both the alliances remain away from majority, then their role will be most important in forming the government.
4. Mahayuti can benefit from Ladki Behan Yojana. Because of this scheme, BJP got victory in Madhya Pradesh. However, Maratha reservation, Maratha Vs OBC, inflation, low crop rates can harm Shinde government.
5. There may be polarization of Muslim votes due to the slogan 'Batenge to Katenge', which will benefit Mahavikas Aghadi.
What is the position of the parties in each region? The whole of Maharashtra is divided into 6 regions Vidarbha, Marathwada, West Maharashtra, North Maharashtra, Konkan and Mumbai. The maximum number of seats, 70, are in Western Maharashtra. The least number of 35 seats is in North Maharashtra.
Vidarbha: It was the stronghold of Congress, it is the strongest.
Vidarbha is the largest region of Maharashtra in terms of area. There is a direct fight between BJP and Congress on 36 out of 62 seats here. Nagpur is the largest city of Vidarbha. The headquarters of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is also located here. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis is contesting the elections from Nagpur itself. Union Minister Nitin Gadkari is also from here.
RSS cadre remained active in Vidarbha, but Congress seems stronger here. In the 2019 assembly elections, BJP had won the maximum 29 seats in Vidarbha. However, according to the data of Lok Sabha elections 2024, Congress has lead on 30 seats and BJP has lead on 15 seats.
West Maharashtra: Sharad Pawar is the biggest factor
Western Maharashtra spread around Pune has been the stronghold of Sharad Pawar's party NCP. Now NCP is divided into two factions. Because of this, there is a fight between Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar's NCP on most of the 70 seats in Western Maharashtra.
The effect of Maratha reservation movement will also be visible in the area, because a large population of Marathas lives here. Manoj Jarange Patil, who started the movement, had withdrawn the nominations of his candidates before the elections, Sharad Pawar and Mahavikas Aghadi may benefit from this.
According to experts, Sharad Pawar is the biggest factor in Western Maharashtra due to his hold on the Marathas and emotional attachment. BJP can become the third party here.
North Maharashtra: Competition between BJP and Congress
Northern Maharashtra consists of the districts of Nashik, Dhule, Nandurbar and Jalgaon. This area was once a Congress stronghold, but BJP and Shiv Sena managed to establish a hold here. In the 2019 assembly elections, BJP had won 20 out of 35 seats in North Maharashtra. Shiv Sena got 6 seats, Congress 5 and NCP 4 seats.
Here there is a contest between Congress, NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), BJP. There are more OBC voters here, who are inclined towards BJP. Gopinath Munde of BJP was a big OBC leader. After his death, daughter Pankaja Munde entered politics. However, she lost in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It was believed that OBC voters were moving away from BJP. On the contrary, Congress seems to be getting benefit in tribal areas.
Marathwada: Center of Maratha movement, biggest impact of Maratha Vs OBC
Caste is the biggest factor in Marathwada, which has been the center of Maratha reservation movement for 2 years. The battle of Marathwada is between NCP (SP), NCP (Ajit Pawar), BJP and Congress. The issue of Maratha Vs OBC can affect the voting pattern. Marathas may move towards Sharad Pawar and Congress. If BJP cuts Maratha votes along with OBC votes in its side, then the situation may change.
Thane-Konkan: CM Eknath Shinde's stronghold, his future will be decided from here
There is a contest between Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction) in Thane-Konkan adjacent to Mumbai. Thane is the stronghold of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, while the entire area of Konkan, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Raigarh has been dominated by the old Shiv Sena. In the Lok Sabha elections, out of 39 seats, Mahayuti was ahead on 23 seats and Mahavikas Aghadi was ahead on 11 seats. Victory in this area can also decide the future of both Shiv Sena.
Mumbai: Competition between the two Shiv Sena
The election results of 36 seats in Mumbai will tell who is the real heir of Shiv Sena. Does the voting power lie with Eknath Shinde or Uddhav Thackeray? Raj Thackeray's party MNS is also in the fray here. In a way, this party will only cut into the votes of Shiv Sena (Uddhav). Mahavikas Aghadi was ahead in 20 out of 36 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Mahayuti had lead on 16 seats.
Inflation is a big issue for voters, mixed effect of Ladki Behen Farmers are angry in Marathwada, Maharashtra. There was a problem of water for farming, now the crop is not getting the right price. Farmer Bala Saheb, who is preparing for the next crop after harvesting soybean, says, 'I am not getting the same rate at which soybean was bought and sown. The MSP of soybean is Rs 4,892, but the price in the market is Rs 3100 to Rs 3600.
At the same time, Meenakshi Wankhede, a resident of Nagpur, is angry with the Ladki Behna scheme of the Shinde government. She says, 'The government is giving Rs 1500 every month. We don't want this money. If you want to improve then improve the school-hospital. Cylinder has become expensive, inflation is increasing.
Sanjay Kumar Chaurasia runs a paan shop near CST station in Mumbai. He came to Mumbai from Uttar Pradesh years ago and is now a voter of Bhindi Bazar assembly constituency. Sanjay rents a room and lives with four people. They say that they are earning enough to eat and live, but inflation is so high that their earnings fall short.
Expert said – Farmers are angry with the government, Mahavikas Aghadi will get benefit Senior journalist Sandeep Sovanalkar says, 'Low soybean rates have become an election issue. The opposition alliance may benefit from this. The Maratha reservation movement, which intensified since 2 years, affected large parts of Maharashtra. This issue is not only about Marathas, OBCs have also joined it.
'OBCs and Marathas constitute about two-thirds of the state's population. NCP-Congress are trying to use the anger of the Maratha movement in their favor, while BJP is trying to unite the OBCs instead of damage control.
If we divide, we will end religious polarization. Political Analyst Prof. Jaydev Dole says, 'The caste factor seemed to dominate the elections. By changing the election strategy, BJP has tried to unite Hindus and break the caste equation through slogans like 'If we divide, we will be cut.'
Experts say that with the help of RSS machinery, BJP wants to end caste polarization, but due to this, religious polarization is increasing. If we divide, we will be divided, but Ajit Pawar and BJP leader Pankaja Munde, who are part of the Grand Alliance, have also expressed their disagreement.
Maharashtra has about 12% Muslim population. Experts believe that Muslim voters may go with Mahavikas Aghadi. The reason for this is the secular image of Sharad Pawar and Congress.
Constitution and reservation still an issue among Dalits Dalits constitute about 14% of the population in Maharashtra. Senior journalist Sandeep Sonwalkar says, 'On one side Maratha vs OBC is going on, on the other side there is the issue of saving the Constitution and resentment of Dalits. There is about 10% tribal community in Maharashtra. The tribal community is angry with BJP for giving tribe status to Dhangar community. Congress will benefit from this.
Common Marathi people are also hurt by the politics of sabotage. During the coverage, people were found who were angry with the defectors. They say that the leader they voted for changed party or joined another alliance. Therefore there is no use of voting.
Sunil Sonwalkar, who has been reporting in Maharashtra for a long time, says that the common Marathi man is hurt by the politics of sabotage that has taken place in the last 5 years. MNS chief Raj Thackeray is making politics of sabotage an issue.
Maha Vikas Aghadi's environment, Mahayuti's management strong Sunil Sonwalkar says, 'Maharashtra elections are so entangled that voters, leaders, election analysts are all entangled. About 8 thousand candidates are contesting on 288 seats. There are about 40 candidates for one seat. Due to the presence of more candidates, division of votes is certain.
'Till now there is a good environment for Mahavikas Aghadi, but Mahayuti knows how to contest elections on the basis of management. At this time, Mahayuti is visible ahead. BJP is trying to win 105 seats in the grand alliance. The party can win 78 to 90 seats. Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena can win 30-35 seats. The weak link of Mahayuti is Ajit Pawar's NCP. It may be difficult for him to win even 15-20 seats.
Sunil Sonwalkar further says, 'On the other hand, Shiv Sena (Uddhav) is weak in Mahavikas Aghadi. After the Lok Sabha elections, he did not help Uddhav Thackeray as much as he was supposed to in candidate selection. Uddhav may get 30-35 seats. Sharad Pawar's party can win 50 seats. If this happens, the politics of Maharashtra will change.
'BJP has held more than 60 thousand small and big rallies. The party is working on two strategies – first, to bring the core voters to the polling booth and second – to divide the votes of the opposition party.
What are the political parties saying?
BJP: Will win 110 to 115 seats, MLAs will decide on CM Party spokesperson Chandan Goswami says, 'Development is the biggest issue in Maharashtra. Our face is PM Modi. Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar are our leaders.
Shiv Sena (Shinde faction): Mahayuti will win more than 185 seats Shaina NC, spokesperson and contesting from Mumbadevi seat, says, 'Our government in Maharashtra has worked on infrastructure in two and a half years. Ladki bahana scheme has been brought for women.
NCP (Ajit Pawar faction): Mahayuti figure will reach 160 Spokesperson Sanjay Tatkare says, 'We are contesting the elections on the issue of development. It is not that we are facing challenge from Sharad Pawar's party. Maratha reservation is not a political issue. What Manoj Jarange Patil was doing, we see it as a movement. We support their demand, our only demand is that reservation should not be given from the OBC section.
Congress: Mahavikas Aghadi will get 170 seats Party spokesperson Atul Londhe says, 'The issue of Maratha and OBC is very big. BJP has angered both the communities. The promise of reservation to Dhangars also remained unfulfilled. Paper leak, no exam, unemployment are the reasons. There is also a big issue of taking projects outside Maharashtra.
NCP (SP): Don't know the seat, it is certain that we will form the government. Party spokesperson Clyde Crasto says, 'The biggest issues in Maharashtra are inflation, unemployment and farmers. We are taking these to the people. BJP does not touch these issues. They are raising issues like Hindu Muslim and vote jihad.
Shiv Sena (Uddhav): Mahavikas Aghadi will get 155-160 seats Spokesperson Priyanka Chaturvedi says that law and order is the biggest issue in Maharashtra. From threat to Salman Khan to murder of Baba Siddiqui, we have seen everything in Mumbai. The issue of taking Maharashtra's industry out is a big one. On the other hand, BJP is talking about division like 'If we are united, we are safe' and 'If we divide, we will be cut'.
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Phase 2: Out of 38 seats, BJP is strong on 8-13, JMM is strong on 10-15, Congress is at loss.
Graphics Source: NavJivanIndia | VaskarAssets | NavBharatTimes
